ABSTRACT:
The eurozone faces a profound sovereign debt crisis threatening the very existence of the euro. As a result, the recovery of the world economy has become more uncertain. Therefore, the study of the foundations of this crisis is of the utmost importance. Three of the countries involved, Portugal, Greece and Spain, share some important attributes: they are all recent democracies and comparatively less developed economies in the set of the twelve initial member States of the eurozone. For these three countries this paper shows that the behavior of the political variables emphasized by the literature as determining the performance of fiscal variables, is indeed statistically different from the ones observed for the other countries in difficulties, Ireland and Italy, which are mature democracies and comparatively developed economies. These outcomes are in line with what the relevant literature expects from countries with those characteristics, such as election year budget cycles. Besides, postelection year budget effects were also detected implying no fiscal consolidation.
KEYWORDS:
Fiscal policy; political budget cycles; new democracies
ABSTRACT:
Foi prometido que Portugal, ao pertencer à Zona Euro,
iria convergir rapidamente com os restantes países da UE
e que teria taxas de juro muito baixas. No entanto, uma
década de descontrolo económico levaram o país para uma
situação de taxas de juro proibitivamente elevadas o que
tem um efeito terrível na economia que se traduz em
taxas de desemprego elevadíssimas e contracção violenta
do PIB. Comparando com o regime de taxas de câmbios
fixos, a evidência empírica diz que esta situação
adversa persistirá no tempo pelo que é inevitável que
Portugal abandone o Euro. Neste artigo apresento um
roteiro para a reintrodução do Escudo que permitirá
manter a liberdade de movimentação de capitais, de
pessoas e de bens e que terá um impacto económico menos
negativo que mantermo-nos na Zona Euro com taxas de juro
real acima dos 10%/ano. Para que a transição seja suave
e não aconteça a bancarrota, Portugal precisa, num
horizonte temporal de 30 anos, de garantias de 420 mil
milhões de Euros. Seja qual for o caminho adoptado,
antevejo que nos próximos 10 anos o nosso rendimento
disponível vai diminuir em mais de 25% mas que, se
sairmos da zona Euro, a recuperação será mais rápida e
mais resistente às más decisões políticas.
KEYWORDS:
Zona Monetária, Câmbios fixos, Saída da Zona Euro, PIIGS
ABSTRACT:
The main purposes of this paper are twofold: on the one
hand, to determine if there are significant differences
of regime on public expenditures, total revenues and tax
revenues between the so-called PIGS and the remaining
Eurozone member states and, on the other hand, to
uncover possible explanations for the quite different
situations in which these countries find themselves
nowadays. This work focus on the effect of the cyclical
state of the economy, captured by the unemployment rate,
and on the two fiscal rules imposed by the Maastricht
Treaty on the Eurozone member states. Based on the
estimated results, which distinguish between PIGS and
non-PIGS countries, we come to the conclusion that the
anti-cyclical reaction with respect to the unemployment
rate is much stronger among non-PIGS. We also find that
fiscal rules have, in general, not been obeyed by the
two groups of countries. Moreover PIGS, in spite of
their economic frailties, have, instead, tried to
emulate the fiscal behavior of their more prosperous
Eurozone partners instead of implementing more rigorous
policies.
KEYWORDS:
European public finance; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rules